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Thoughts on the Weekend in Sports posted on 02/05/2008

Some general thoughts on Super Bowl 42, the Santana trade, the Gasol trade

Point differential and why this is the biggest upset in NFL History:

Everyone is (correctly) highlighting the fact that it seems incredible that the 16-0 Patriots could lose to a 10-6 Giants team that most people didn't expect to get past the first round of the playoffs. But I like to look at point differential as a true measure of a teams greatness, and doing this makes the Patriots loss even more ridiculous than it does when looking at records alone.

For an example of why point differential is a better measure of dominance than wins and losses alone, take two hypothetical teams: both play the same schedule, one goes 14-2, one goes 16-0. The 16-0 team wins every game by a score of 23-20, the 14-2 team outscores its opponents 56-0 in every win while only losing by a score of 14-13 in its two losses. Its pretty clear that the 16-0 team got lucky in winning all of its game by close margins and probably isn't as good as its record indicates, while the 14-2 team, despite its inferior record, is probably the better team, as it absolutely dominated all season outside of those two close losses. Obviously there are other variables that need to be considered (injuries, style of play, ability to close teams out), but usually teams that win games by a lot are better than teams that squeak out a lot of close wins.

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Looks like its 100% going to happen... posted on 01/29/2008

Looks like Warriors fans are going a chance to see Webber back in the bay by the end of the week: possibly for Friday's home game in Oakland against the Charlotte Bobcats (already an interesting matchup because J-Rich returns to Oakland for the first time).

From ESPN: "I'll be there tomorrow," Webber said via email. "It's a done deal."

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3219421

As mentioned yesterday, I don't think this helps the Warriors in the long run, and might be a risky move...but lets sit back and see what happens. At the very least the the '07-'08 version of the Warriors (Stephen Jackson's adventures with firearms outside nightclubs aside) has legit team leadership and hopefully will be handle any problems better than Latrell "I'm probably the only professional athlete whose famous for being a choker in the literal sense of the word" Spreewell and the rest of the '93-'94 Warriors could.

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Webber to the Warriors? posted on 01/29/2008
Various sources are reporting that the Warriors (or at least Don Nelson) are pushing hard to try and sign Chris Webber for the remainder of the season. Reaction to this possibility from local sports columnists seems to range from cautiously enthusiastic (hey, the Warriors need front-court depth and who wouldn't want to join one of the feel-good stories of the NBA right now) to the overwhelmingly negative (that clubhouse cancer? On the W's? with Don Nelson? Are you fucking kidding me?).

For an example of the cautious optimist see Warrior fan Adam Laurisden's blog on the SJ Mercury News website, for the generally negative view see SJ Mercury News Warriors beat writer Tim Kawakami's take here.

My first instinct was to go with the cautiously optimistic pundits on this one, because the W's do legitimately need some front-court depth and it really does seem like Nellie has the team completely behind him and will be able to overcome any C-Dubb grumblings that might (probably will?) come up. But Kawakami is a don (the don) when it comes to covering the Warriors; there's a reason I'm linking to his column when the Chronicle usually provides by far the best local sports coverage for the bay. And after reading his take I have to agree with him: the Warriors do need to add front court depth, but it needs to be with someone who fits in with the overall system and who definitely won't screw up the team's chemistry. Webber might provide a badly needed inside offensive presence for Golden State's half-court sets, but is that worth the risk of messing up the team unity that has carried the Warriors since last April?

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Welcome to my blog... posted on 01/29/2008

I will generally be posting about Bay Area Sports, with the occasional rant about politics or life in general.  The A's are my favorite team so my website appears under their community but I'll be posting a lot about the Warriors, Cal Bears football and basketball, the 49ers, and even occasionally the English Premier League and the Sharks too. 

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